Today, Americans go out to vote in the midterm elections (all 435 House and 37 Senate seats up for grabs halfway through President Obama’s tenure). Most political outlets are predicting that Republicans will take control of the House, and possibly even the Senate. The key word here being possible because everyone is attempting to predict the election, but it will all come down to how many people actually go out and vote.
European Parliament (EP) elections are the subject of much controversy in Europe. The EP is the only directly elected institution and elections are plagued by low voter turnout. It is important to remember that the electoral system used by the EU is proportional rather than single member district like in the U.S. In a proportional system voters select a party on a ballot rather than a person. That party then receives an amount of seats in the parliament proportional to the number of votes they receive. A threshold of votes must be reached for a party to receive seats, eliminating the possibility of parties with less than 1 percent of the vote from entering government. This system favors the entrance of smaller parties into government, while single member district systems traditionally produce a two party government.
Simon Hix and Michael Marsh sum up existing research on EP elections and come to insightful conclusions in their article “Punishment or Protest? Understanding European Parliament Elections.” Hix and Marsh conclude that a minor proportion of voters cast their ballot in protest against the integration project and find that most voters are subject to the “honeymoon effect.” The honeymoon effect affects elections by causing voters to reward a ruling party shortly after national elections by casting their ballot for that party in EP elections. If the honeymoon is over with the national government and the public is unhappy with the ruling party, they will punish this party during EP elections by casting their ballot for different parties. Along with timing (the honeymoon effect), second order theory states that the governing and the largest parties will lose seats during second-order contests.[i]
Research has shown that second-order theory largely holds true for EP elections; can any of these principles be applied to American midterms? It appears that the three principles of second-order theory are having a large impact on today’s elections. The honeymoon with President Obama is over halfway through his term. The Democrats have held power in Congress since 2006 and are therefore the largest party in government. With unemployment close to 10 percent the public is looking for new solutions to solving the Great Recession.
Disdain with Democratic handling of the recession has given birth to the anti-government Tea Party movement. As I compiled sources on the Tea Party, which I originally was going to post about, I became confused about exactly what they stand for and the funding of the movement has come under increased scrutiny. Rather than discuss that here, it is best to wait and see how many Tea Party candidates succeed in getting elected to public office. Fringe parties, similar to the Tea Party, fare better in EP elections as voters have the “luxury of supporting smaller parties that may seem irrelevant in a national election where government formation was a salient issue.”[ii] In the midterms, a presidential election is not at stake, and is not the salient issue, so voters have the luxury of supporting movements like the Tea Party.
Midterm predictions all point toward results that hold true to second-order theory. Republican takeover of the House and the Senate will be a clear indication that the public is unhappy with President Obama and is punishing his administration by voting against Democrats. It is currently debated whether this will lead to gridlock or increase compromise between the two parties.
I can only hope, that if this happens, we take a lesson from our neighbors across the Atlantic and choose compromise.
I can only hope, that if this happens, we take a lesson from our neighbors across the Atlantic and choose compromise.
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